ARE LIBERALS REALLY CHANGING COURSE?

We're told that executing turns in large ships is not a speedy process. Canada is a very large ship and no one would ever accuse it of overhasty governance. Still, some sort of course correction appears to be underway in Ottawa, tardy and reluctant as it may be.

In November, in advance of a fiscal update, members of the Trudeau government started talking about something called “fiscal prudence.”

“I think it's important for us to be careful with people's money, opined Greg Fergus, parliamentary secretary to both the prime minister and the president of the Treasury Board.

“I think there's more of an opportunity to be frugal,” added Sean Casey, a Liberal MP from Charlottetown.

Sure enough, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's update was deemed in some quarters to be unusually light in the gusher of money normally associated with Trudeau government budgeting. Ottawa couldn't go on being all things to all people, she professed. “Anyone who claims they could prevent the challenges ahead is wrong.” There was even talk that Canada could, possibly, some day, balance its budget.

Soon after, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly released a long-awaited strategy on Indo-Pacific relations. Years in the making, until a few months earlier it reportedly didn't even mention China. But now it did.

Beijing had become an “increasingly disruptive global power.” Business people needed to be “clear-eyed” in dealing with it. Ottawa was on its guard against foreign interference.

“We won't let any foreign actor meddle in our democracy. Period,” the minister proclaimed.

While Joly was laying down the law on China, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault was in Egypt asserting that Canada wasn't about to back every United Nations fossil fuel extermination plan that comes along, just because that's what it generally does. In particular, Ottawa was happy to support a bid to phase out coal plants as electricity producers — which we're already doing, anyway — but wasn't about to add oil and gas firms to the list. In addition, he argued that if Canada was to contribute to a new climate compensation fund for developing countries, financial fat cats like Saudi Arabia and big emitters like China should be doing so as well.

“We believe that the funds should include all large emitters,” he said. Interestingly enough, Guilbeault was on his own at the Egypt get-together because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who rarely misses a big summit or a climate change photo op, opted not to go.

It's highly unlikely any of this is happening because the Trudeau Liberals, after seven years in office, have had a big rethink about where they stand on crucial issues. Mostly it's been forced on them in contravention to policies they have championed until now.

With inflation rising, interest rates increasing, debt charges escalating, the dollar weakened, housing unaffordable, the Bank of Canada losing money and Big Bank CEOs fretting, Freeland could hardly go on claiming Canada “can't afford not to” keep flooding out borrowed money.

The Canada Revenue Agency, the country's tax collector, is so desperate for cash to meet the government's record spending levels that it's clawing back $3.2 billion in money Ottawa sent out in COVID benefits. Some 825,000 debt notes have been sent to people who thought they were being helped by a generous government, only to be told Ottawa wants it back.

Similarly, Joly couldn't reasonably continue the decades in which Liberal China policy consisted of Team Canada junkets in search of elusive trade deals, compliant ambassadors tasked with keeping Beijing mollified, a blind eye turned to abusive trade practices, technology theft and industrial espionage, and a willingness to endure crude insults and diplomatic snubs, all in service to the belief that lots of money could be made if only we put up with enough baloney. If kidnapping the two Michaels hadn't cleared Ottawa's fog, Washington's toughening stance and its determination that Canada get on board would have.

The question is what happens next with a government for which announcements often represent the apex of its interest, with follow-through action a distant concern. In his latest report, parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux noted that Freeland's actions hardly rated as restraint: a $4-billion increase to the Canada Workers Benefit will mainly go to people who no longer qualify, debt charges will hit $53 billion by 2024, a seven-year Liberal hiring spree will see the public service wage bill hit $55 billion this year, more than $130,000 per bureaucrat. Meanwhile, apparently believing inflation could be tamed by adding more money, Ottawa “temporarily” doubled the GST rebate.

“Would I qualify this as restrained spending growth? The answer is unsurprisingly, no,” Giroux said.

“When the government has $81 billion in fiscal room, and spends $52 billion of that, even after taking into account new tax measures, it's not called keeping one's powder dry.”

Guilbeault's level of commitment is also open to question. Given his history as a tower-climbing activist it's hard to imagine Guilbeault's heart could be in anything other than complete compliance with anything the UN thinks is a good plan. Even while sharing Ottawa's views in Egypt, he signalled his arm was being twisted. “Everything we do is challenged in the court,” he complained in Egypt in justifying Ottawa's cautious approach to oil and gas crusades. “If we're not on very solid legal ground, we will lose in front of the tribunals and that doesn't help anyone.”

The shift in the China file looks to have more hope of resonance, if only because so few Canadians still think pandering to Beijing is smart policy.

Ottawa cited security concerns in ordering three Chinese companies to disinvest their holdings in critical mining operations, while the RCMP says it is investigating allegations of persistent Chinese “interference” in Canadian elections and “democratic processes.” China's ambassador has reportedly been called in more than once to explain claims Beijing operates as many as 50 illicit “police stations” in Canada as a means of extending its control over overseas residents.

While issuing carefully-worded denials about his knowledge of Chinese interference in Canadian elections — “I do not have any information, nor have I been briefed on any federal candidates receiving any money from China,” Trudeau allowed that “there are consistent engagements by representatives of the Chinese government into Canadian communities, with local media, reports of illicit Chinese police stations.”

Don't expect the prime minister or any other member of his crew to admit the big Liberal ship is fully committed to changing course on such critical issues. We'll only know that if it continues steaming in a different direction.