Brazil braces for tense run-off vote

Much closer result than polls had suggested

RIO DE JANEIRO •Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro and his leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Monday buckled up for four more weeks of intense campaigning in the deeply divided nation, as the president's unexpectedly strong showing set up a tight Oct. 30 run-off vote.

Lula, a two-term former president who was jailed on corruption convictions that were later overturned, won the most votes in Sunday's presidential election, and for many remains the favourite to be re-elected later this month.

But Bolsonaro's better-than-expected performance revitalized his campaign, giving credence to his claim that the pollsters were wrong to write him off in Brazil's most fraught election since the end of military rule in 1985.

The far-right leader's strong showing also prolonged questions about whether Brazil's democratic institutions will be able to stand up to his unfounded allegations that the country's voting system can't be trusted.

Walking her dog in Rio de Janeiro's Lagoa neighbourhood, Marcia Oliviera, 69, was outraged by how surveys misread Bolsonaro's support.

“The polling companies have zero credibility,” she said, calling Lula a “crook, a thief, a snake charmer. I find it unbelievable that people could vote for him.”

Most polling firms had given Lula a 10-15 point lead ahead of Sunday's vote, raising the possibility of a firstround victory for the leftist. But with 99.99 per cent of electronic votes counted, Lula had taken 48.4 per cent of votes versus 43.2 per cent for Bolsonaro, meaning that neither secured the over 50 per cent needed to avoid a run-off.

The remaining votes went to nine other candidates who are now eliminated.

The result turbocharged Brazilian markets, on expectations that it may force Lula to move to the centre and limit his room for dramatic policy changes even if he does triumph.

Support for distant thirdand fourth-place finishers also fell short of recent surveys, suggesting some of their backers may have shifted to Bolsonaro when it came time to vote.

After his unexpected surge, many analysts said the electoral momentum was now with Bolsonaro. If he does pull off a dramatic comeback, it would break with a wave of leftist victories across the region in recent years, including Mexico, Colombia, Argentina and Chile.

Capital Economics said in a note that Lula was still the favourite to be elected. But it said Bolsonaro and his allies' “surprisingly strong performance” will provide severe obstacles to governing Latin America's biggest country.

“That should help to temper fears of a sharp shift to the left,” it wrote.