Successor speculation in full swing

No one expected the arrangement to last a full term. Yet the Horgan-led minority government fared so well with the voters, it could have survived the full four years specified in the power-sharing agreement.

Then came Horgan's masterstroke, the snap election call a year earlier than the date he, himself, had enshrined into provincial law.

Politics is a ruthless business, and through three decades as a staffer, MLA, and now premier, John Horgan learned it well.

In talking to reporters Tuesday, the premier resisted being drawn into a back and forth on his time in office, preferring to leave that for another day.

His biggest change, the one with the farthest-reaching implications for the province, was enshrining the principles of the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples into provincial law and public policy.

The record will show he made some progress advancing the NDP agenda while also facing an Old Testament worth of challenges: fires, floods, a heat wave, and a plague.

But as Horgan also said Tuesday, responding to events is what governing is all about.

As for the NDP's agenda, there is still a lot on the to-do list. Horgan expressed the hope that having cleared the air regarding his own plans, the government could get on to dealing with challenges such as inflation and housing affordability.

However, when a premier announces he's going, the power begins flowing away from him. Increasingly, the news cycle will be taken over by coverage of the leadership race.

Horgan, hearkening back to his comments in 2013, is again saying the NDP “needs to make space for the next generation.”

The speculation about the field of potential leadership candidates was in full flight before he even finished speaking: cabinet ministers David Eby, Ravi Kahlon, Selina Robinson, Bowinn Ma, Nathan Cullen. None is Horgan's equal at the gift of the gab, nor have they his natural rapport with the public.

Perhaps that is why some New Democrats are touting the name of an outsider: Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West, who does show flashes of Horgan's populist touch.

The premier, putting the best face on his departure, said the party has a good pool of candidates and, in any event, the NDP will be judged at the next election on its policies, values and record.

“It's never been about me,” he said, never mind that the opinion polls suggest the leadership factor has been key to the NDP's success in B.C.

Consider a recent Angus Reid poll that found 88 per cent disapproval for the NDP record on housing affordability. More affordable housing was arguably the number-one promise in the NDP platform in 2017 and 2020.

Despite the thumbs down on housing affordability, those same respondents awarded Horgan an approval rating of 55 per cent.

That must be nirvana for a politician: your government is failing to deliver on one of its main promises, yet the voters still love you.

Horgan has earned the right to leave on his own terms and timing after what he has been through this past year.

He can say he's leaving the party and government in relatively good shape.

But as he heads for the exit, he is taking with him the NDP's number-one asset with the voters — himself.