BIDEN'S CHINA THREAT NO GAFFE

U.S. president knows what he's doing when he talks tough on Taiwan

When Joe Biden let slip the other day that the United States would respond militarily if China invaded Taiwan, he was said to have misspoken. It was a mistake, a slip of the tongue, a “gaffe.”

No change of policy here, insisted the White House. The president did not suggest that the U.S. would defend Taiwan when he answered a reporter's question in Tokyo. No, he was not reversing the country's long-standing commitment to offer Taiwan all help short of armed intervention. Blame it on ol' loose-lipped Uncle Joe, scoffed critics. This was their line when Biden casually endorsed regime change in Russia in March (“For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power,” he said of Vladimir Putin.)

Biden was pilloried then. Critics said he would prolong the war. They warned him not to antagonize Putin because, well, he might get mad. Same for the Chinese.

But this wasn't a gaffe at all. Biden's reply on Taiwan is a signal and a warning.

Remember, this was the third time Biden has said this in nine months. It invites the Republicans to paint him as a drooling, doddering fool, unfit for office.

But Biden knows what he is doing. His handling of Ukraine has been confident and measured. He has united (even expanded) NATO, imposed a harsh regime of economic sanctions on Russia, isolated its corrupt elite, and armed Ukraine — all with broad support.

Some fool. Some incompetent. Biden is saving Ukraine without fighting Russians and killing Americans. While containing a cornered Putin will demand shrewdness, Biden is up to the challenge. For this, he gets no credit.

On Taiwan, his “gaffes” are emerging red lines for the Chinese without expressly saying so. The point: The world is changing. Democracy is in peril. Collective security matters. The message to China: If you are going to threaten Taiwan with military exercises and heated rhetoric, the United States will respond. It does not want Taiwan to become Hong Kong.

But this is not what the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 says. It allows the U.S. to send arms and aid to Taiwan to protect itself, but that's all. There's no obligation to intervene. This is called “strategic ambiguity.”

That hasn't stopped Biden from recently suggesting otherwise. He's implying, if not saying, that Ukraine has reawakened the West's commitment to democracy, which now extends from Europe to Asia. And it will now, at the very least, send Taiwan advanced weaponry, encourage more training and new defence tactics, and provide access to intelligence. All to discourage the Chinese.

The U.S. has intervened — albeit modestly — before. In 1996, for example, president Bill Clinton sent warships into the Straits of Taiwan when China tested missiles over Taiwan. China's sabre-rattling suddenly stopped.

Taiwan is a thrusting democracy of 23 million with a sophisticated economy and a proud people. From poverty and authoritarianism it has made itself rich and free in two generations. Honouring a one-china policy, the world engages Taiwan commercially but ignores it diplomatically. This leaves Taiwan a pariah, safeguarding its dignity and democracy amid China's volley of threats, its rising aggressiveness in the Pacific and its theft of intellectual property. Up to now, Taiwan's approach has been to trade with China but reject its embrace. Taiwan wisely stops short of declaring independence, understanding that China insists that it is no more than a province of China, despite its autonomy since 1949.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has fortified its island. Invading and conquering Taiwan some 160 kilometres from China would cost China dearly and destroy Taiwan.

The cost to the world of isolating China would be frightening, given an economy far larger than Russia's. Biden's hope is that China is watching the West's response to Ukraine and China will defer its demands for “reunification,” settling for the status quo that has kept the peace. But what Biden is saying now is no mistake. His message is urgent, necessary, timely and direct: If the United States cannot deter China, it will defend Taiwan.